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Deadlock in talks may lead to renewed fighting in Ukraine: Commentator

Friday, 13 May 2016 9:22 AM [ Last Update: Friday, 13 May 2016 9:22 AM ]

(L-R) Foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany arrive for a family picture prior to talks at the Villa Borsig guest house of the German Foreign Ministry in Berlin, May 11, 2016. (Photo by AFP)

Press TV has conducted an interview with Fred Weir, a journalist and political commentator, about the recent developments regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

The following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Why do you think it is that Ukraine is playing so hard?

Weir: Well, no this is an ongoing thing. The Minsk Agreement, which is now well over a year old, it did impose a ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons and certain practical steps that were carried out, but it envisaged further political steps, which have not been.

And it’s now incumbent — has been for quite a while — on the Ukrainian government to pass constitutional changes that grant a special status to those rebel republics in the east and to create the conditions for elections to be held there in which the people of those two Donbass Republics can select leaders in some way that will be... will get recognition, recognition in Kiev and the rest of the world.

And they will tell you openly in Kiev, ‘Politically impossible, they could not do that.’ What they want to happen first is for Russia and the rebel republics to fulfill their part of the Minsk Accords, which is to give the control of the border back to Kiev and to submit to Kiev authority, which is also politically impossible in Donetsk or Lugansk.

So, that’s why we have this stalemate, that’s the short reason. There was this very important meeting yesterday. It’s clear that no progress was made. And so, we have this ongoing deadlock, which... it’s falling off the news cycles and nobody pays attention, but sooner or later this is going to explode in renewed fighting, I’m afraid.

Press TV: Indeed and so, Mr. Weir, in a sense, who do you think will blink first, because somebody at some point will have to give in, I would imagine?

Weir: No, I don’t think either side is going to blink. What I fear is... well, there could be new political shocks. The situation in Kiev is not very stable these days; there could be some kind of serious upset that would change the whole political complexion of this; or one or the other or both sides could return to the battlefield. There are constant rumors about this. The fighting has ticked up perhaps because it is spring time and that is a time when armies move more freely in this part of the world.

But sooner or later, as I said, the way out of this, if they can’t break the deadlock at the negotiating table, will be on the battlefield.

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