Russian gains changed equation of Syria talks: Commentator

Press TV has interviewed Fred Weir, a journalist and political commentator in Moscow, to discuss the remarks made by US Secretary of State John Kerry, saying Russian military activities in Syria and the Middle East are making it difficult to hold peace talks.

The following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Why is it that everybody wants Russia to stop its airstrikes when for the most part as far as we know they are getting rid of these terrorists including their positions?

Weir: Well this is connected with the rather stunning battlefield gains of the Russians and Syrians and their allies. They are not only in the north but in south of Syria, it is changing the whole equation and it is the same dispute that we have been having since the Russians intervened which is there are series of so-called moderate rebel forces that were lined up and supported by the United States and several other countries - Turkey and [Persian] Gulf states - and they had hoped to overthrow Assad or at least put enough pressure on battlefield pressure to force the Syrian government to agree to a transition on the rebel terms.

Now the Russians and their allies have reversed that equation pretty much and now it is them pouring on the battlefield pressure and they want also a negotiated settlement but on their terms and that is why for the first time we do hear, I guess, John Kerry calling for an immediate ceasefire. It just reflects the changing equation and the stakes for each side are like that.

Press TV: Well if we were to look at a chess game here, it seems that obviously Russia along with the Syrian army and Iran in their advisory role have made their gains, they are winning the war on the ground. So what is there left to do if Russia does not halt its airstrikes and continues with it? What types of decisions do you think will be made, the US along with its regional allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Weir: Well see, I do not think that the United States had plans to do anything to stop the Russians. I think they are appalled and alarmed at this turn of events but I do not really think that they want a confrontation. But here in Moscow the Russians claim or certainly the anxiety is present that Turkey might invade northern Syria, we have heard that Saudi Arabia has proposed to send troops, so there is that threat of escalation from the allies who really were heavily invested in the rebel victory.

I personally think the Americans have been a little bit ambivalent about overthrowing Assad from the start but their allies definitely [all in], Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and so this is with kind of gains the Russians have made. They can seal off the city of Aleppo and presumably retake it within the next week or two and they are threatening to close the border between Syria and Turkey and that really is a game changer and that is why you hear all this shouting going on right now. I think that is the basic reason.   

Press TV: Well Saudi Arabia sending in ground forces, I am not too sure how is that going to pan out with the way that it has been going with the war in Yemen but for Turkey to come in, were they to come in, would they be coming in, in the capacity of Turkey or under NATO?

Weir: No, no, no, that would be Turkey. I do not think as I said the United States and certainly not the European members of NATO, they do not want to get heavily involved in a ground invasion in Syria. I am pretty sure. That message comes loud and clear from those corridors. It would be Turkey and they would do it in the name of creating some kind of safe haven or I mean the things that they have been advocating all along it is just that they would feel like they had to do it unilaterally now to try to pull some of their chestnuts out of the fire because the Russians and the Syrian army are advancing a lot faster and more decisively and had been predicted in the last few months.

Press TV: And finally and quickly, is there a US-led coalition still operating from the air or is that not operating as of now?

Weir: No, no it is still there … I mean in both Iraq and Syria this air war against ISIL (Daesh), against the Islamic State is still going on. It is not racking up a lot of sorties but it is still there, it is still a factor and by the way it is still a subject of discussion between Russia and the United States because the Russians do say we should get on the same page and cooperate in this war, part of the war at least, and it is a possibility too.

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