Turkey election results indicate Erdogan's grip is loosening: Journalist

Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections are particularly significant as they could end the incumbent president’s long reign in power, says a journalist and analyst, stressing that it’s the first time the country’s opposition parties have put up a united front.

In an interview with the Press TV website on Monday, Lindsey Snell, an American journalist who has covered the Caucasus, West Asia and North Africa for years, said the numbers from the first round of presidential polls held on Sunday indicate that Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “grip is loosening”.

The tightly contested Turkish presidential vote is set to go to the run-off after Erdogan failed to secure 50 percent of the votes required to form the new government and extend his 20-year stint at the helm.

With 99% of votes counted on Monday morning, Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) said Erdogan was ahead with 49.46 percent of votes while his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu had 44.79 percent – neither of them securing the outright majority.

Sinan Oglan, a right-wing candidate, came in third with 5.28 percent of votes, according to Turkey’s state media, raising the possibility of him being the kingmaker in the second round.

While Erdogan’s supporters expressed disappointment with the result, Kilicdaroglu welcomed the likelihood of a runoff vote and exuded confidence that his party would emerge victorious.

“We strongly believe that we will continue to serve our nation for the next 5 years,” Erdogan told his supporters late Sunday night.

Snell, who has followed Turkish politics closely for years, said Erdogan will “likely win if there is indeed a runoff”, particularly with his Justice and Development Party (AKP) securing the majority in parliament.

But, she hastened to add that the numbers from Sunday’s vote “definitely indicate that Erdogan’s grip is loosening” and that the opposition “has never been so united”. 

Turkey’s Erdogan faces second round in fiercely fought race for presidency

Turkey’s presidential election is heading for a runoff as no candidate succeeds to secure a majority vote in the first round.

From 2003, Erdogan served three terms as prime minister. In 2014, when he was barred from running again, Erdogan stood for the largely ceremonial role of president.

In 2016, he survived a coup, but that only strengthened his grip and consolidated his political standing in the country. A year later, he won a referendum that gave him sweeping presidential powers.

The award-winning journalist, however, said the incumbent Turkish president’s foreign policy has been “disastrous” with Turkey “launching military attacks on several countries, pointing specifically to Syria.

Kilicdaroglu, she noted, has been a fierce critic of the AKP’s foreign policy, “so major changes would be expected” if Kilicdaroglu manages to dislodge Erdogan in the run-off.

On Erdogan’s remarks that US President Joe Biden tried to “topple” him, Snell said it isn’t necessarily indicative of his future foreign policy decisions.

“Erdogan accused the Obama administration of being involved in the 2016 coup attempt. Under Trump, there were a smattering of US sanctions on Turkey over its incursions into Northern Syria in 2019, and Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program for purchasing the S-400 from Russia,” she said.

“Despite this, Turkey and the US maintained a close alliance. Today, largely because of Turkey’s supposed “peacemaker” role in the war in Ukraine, relations between the US and Turkey are much improved, and the US is allowing Turkey to upgrade its fleet of F-16s.”

Snell said the Turkish president is “great at playing both sides” – “disparaging the West…while closely cooperating with the West”. 

On his rival Kilicdaroglu’s accusation that Russia interfered in Turkish elections, she said he will be “less useful” to the Kremlin than Erdogan has been, “in part because Erdogan’s foreign policy hinges on dealmaking with Russia over several countries.”

“But even if Kilicdaroglu ultimately wins, Russia and Turkey will remain allies,” he hastened to add.

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