Biden unnerved by Ukraine’s spring offensive, fears failure will dissipate allies’ support: Politico

The administration of US President Joe Biden fears that if Ukraine’s spring offensive against Russia fails, it will spark criticism at home and in European capitals that America has come up short and it will weaken support among US allies for the war against Russia, according to an article published in the German-owned Politico newspaper. 

The article, published on Tuesday, reveals that the Ukrainian offensive, which is expected to take place next month, is reportedly aimed at retaking “Russian-seized territory most likely in the east and south.”

According to leaked Pentagon documents, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April.

“If the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum,” the article reads.

Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haas, according to Politico, said that "support for Ukraine is expensive."

He said, "Ammunition is running low, there are many unforeseen nuances, and therefore the question of negotiations for a cessation of hostilities will inevitably arise if Ukraine can not win any significant victory on the battlefield."

According to the article, some US officials believe that “Ukraine’s shortcoming proves it can’t force Russia out of its territory completely.”

Inside Biden’s administration, officials stress they’re doing everything possible to make the spring offensive a success, as the US has flooded Ukraine with lethal arms and weapons.

“We’ve nearly completed the requests of what [Ukraine] said they needed for the counteroffensive as we have surged weapons and equipment to Ukraine over the past few months,” the article quoted one administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, as saying.

The concerns were recently brought to light during a leak of classified information onto social media.

A top-secret assessment from early February stated that Ukraine’s spring offensive would fall “well short” of its objectives.

According to the article, US officials have also briefed Ukraine on” the dangers of overextending its ambitions and spreading its troops too thin”.

Politico said the failure of the offensive will also weaken support provided by Washington’s allies in Europe to Kiev, and push for calls for an end to the fighting.

“European public support may wane over time as European energy and economic costs stay high,” Clementine Starling, a director and fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C, was quoted as saying.

“A fracturing of transatlantic support will likely hurt US domestic support and Congress and the Biden administration may struggle to sustain it.”

Starling added that “a poor counteroffensive will spark further questions about what an outcome to the war will look like, and the extent to which a solution can really be achieved by continuing to send military arms and aid alone.”

Russia: Risks of direct nuclear confrontation with US keep growing

Russia warns that risks of direct military confrontation with the United States are increasing.

Ukraine had been reportedly planning to attack Moscow on the first anniversary of the offensive on February 24. The attack, however, was held off at the US behest, the Washington Post claimed on Monday.

According to the report, Washington worried that attacks against Russia could provoke a harsh response from the Kremlin.

On February 22, two days before the anniversary, the CIA circulated a new classified report, stating that Ukraine’s military intelligence [HUR] “had agreed, at Washington’s request, to postpone strikes” on Moscow.

The documents, part of a trove of classified information allegedly leaked on social media sites by Jack Douglas Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the US Air National Guard, who is now arrested.

Russia has been carrying out what it calls a special military operation against Ukraine since February 2022, saying the operation aims to stop Kiev's persecution of the pro-Russian population in eastern Ukraine and to “de-Nazify” the ex-Soviet republic.

Since then, the US and its allies have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia and have provided Kiev with billions of dollars in weapons.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that the military aid will only prolong the war.

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