Breakdown of Franco-German relations augurs ill for the EU: Analyst

A political analyst says the French-German “motor” that has been at the EU’s heart for six decades has now broken down due to growing differences between Paris and Berlin over a range of issues. 

Mujtaba Rahman, who leads and oversees Eurasia Group's analysis and advisory work on Europe, wrote in an article published on the Financial Times website on Sunday that the current spat seemed more serious than usual, threatening to undermine the EU's ability to act.

"The breakdown is already undermining the EU’s agenda in areas such as climate. It casts doubt over the reform of the EU’s fiscal framework, the Stability and Growth Pact, creating less predictability for investors on the sustainability of public finances in Europe’s high-deficit, high-debt economies. It also makes a credible response to the US Inflation Reduction Act less likely, as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen scrapes the EU budget barrel to fund a collective European response."

The author further says progress on enlargement, the budget and governance will be close to impossible without harmony between the two sides.

Rahman largely blames the new government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is mostly concerned with the unity of his coalition and Germany’s economy, for a deepening rift that emerged between the two countries. He says Germany’s new power structure seems uninterested or unwilling to think in European terms

"For proof, look no further than Scholz’s speech on Europe in Prague last August. The chancellor made only passing reference to France. French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech on Europe at the Sorbonne in 2017 mentioned Germany six times."

The author states Scholz’s biggest problem is that his coalition’s smallest party, the Free Democrats, is fighting for survival, having been kicked out of three state parliaments since the federal election in September 2021. They also risk defeat in elections in Bavaria and Hesse this autumn. Without the liberals, Scholz’s government would fall. He would also be unable to fashion a new majority, given the current array of forces in the Bundestag.

"They have reverted to first principles — uncompromising positions on Europe, fiscal policy and climate change — to try to claw back support."

This explains the defensiveness of Scholz’s European agenda, and why he withdrew his government’s support for the EU’s combustion engine ban from 2035, Rahman emphasized.  

"If he lifts his head to contemplate the world outside Germany, it is usually to gaze across the Atlantic, not towards Paris or Brussels."

The author indicates Macron is not free from blame. He has a tendency to go off-script, as shown by his much-criticized recent comments on the self-ruled Chinese island of Taiwan.

Recent remarks by Macron of France regarding China's sovereignty over the self-ruled island of Taiwan and the notion that being a US ally did not mean being a "vassal" have sparked controversy among the ranks of the 27-nation trade union.

In remarks on Thursday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius criticized Macron’s warning against Europe being a “vassal” of the United States as “unfortunate.”

Macron speaks out, sparks controversy in ranks of EU

The French president has said his country still backed the "status quo" on the self-ruled island of Taiwan.

Observers also say Germany seems determined to go back to fully relying on NATO, while France is aiming for a European solution within Macron's so-called 'strategic autonomy.

The Franco-German duo has had temporary breakdowns in the past. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and President Jacques Chirac scarcely spoke to one another for several months after a row over EU farm policy in 1999. Chancellor Angela Merkel and presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande had poor starts.

But the present chill in relations reflects something more fundamental. Germany’s new power structure seems uninterested or unwilling to think in European terms. Without them, Macron has little hope of realizing his vision of a “sovereign” Europe, diplomatically independent of the US without being dependent on China.

France and Germany have traditionally been seen as consensus makers within the EU. But the author sees the so-called Franco-German engine as a thing of the past.

"France and Germany cannot — and should not — dominate the EU27 as they did the original six and, to Britain’s discomfort, the nine, 10 and 12. Decisions in Europe should now be a more collective Endeavour."

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