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Analyst: Trump’s bluster will not carry him in 2024

Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a Save America rally on October 1, 2022 in Warren, Michigan. (Getty Images)

An American political analyst and activist says if there is a bevy of Republican candidates in 2024, Donald Trump’s bluster and persona will not carry him the way it did in 2016.

Myles Hoenig, a former Green Party candidate for Congress, said in an interview with Press TV on Saturday that some Republican challengers might develop a spine and take Trump on.

Former US House Speaker Paul Ryan on Thursday predicted that Trump will lose if he decides to run again for the White House in 2024. 

The former Speaker added that Trump’s “unelectability will be palpable” by the 2024 presidential election and that the next Republican nominee will likely be someone else. 

“I think Trump’s unelectability will be palpable by then. We all know that he will lose. … We all know that he is so much more likely to lose the White House than anybody else running for president on our side of the aisle, so why would we want to go with that?” Ryan said in an interview with Teneo for its “Insights Series.”

Ryan said that Trump is the Democrats’ weapon against Republicans. "He’s a cudgel against us, especially in our swing districts.”

Hoenig said, “Two years is a lifetime in politics. In one two-year period one could experience a meteoric rise, as someone like Tulsi Gabbard did. But in two years one could drop precipitously, such as Joe Lieberman or Howard Dean. Trump is likely no exception and former House Leader Ryan is correct in projecting Trump as no longer relevant within the party. If there is a bevy of Republican candidates in 2024, Trump’s bluster and insults and persona will not carry him the way it did in 2016.”

“If Trump brags about any of his accomplishments, there’ll be plenty of candidates who would be ‘brave’ enough’ to argue about it. If he resorts to his usual name-calling, his immaturity will be exposed and no longer cheered on. It will actually be embarrassing for many who were once his supporters. Some of his opponents might even develop a spine for the moment, as Ted Cruz was emasculated by Trump on the campaign trail yet with Cruz hovelling before him afterwards,” he added.

“What cannot be predicted, though, is the future. What will happen with all the investigations, likely indictments, and perhaps the end of his empire? If he does announce that he’s running it will likely be because of these troubles and it will serve as a political weapon for him. But even the ‘Donald’ may not be able to fight the numerous legal and financial troubles and run for president simultaneously. Candidates have run for office while serving jail time like Eugene V. Debs, but no president has been incarcerated in a state jail while holding office. The only pardon could come from the governor of the state. Georgia would likely have a Republican governor but not New York,” he noted.

“For now, the only hope for Trump to escape all these existential problems would be to get on his private jet, before it’s repossessed, and fly to a non-extradition country. In 2024, the aura around him would likely be as bright as a 40-watt bulb,” he concluded.


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