Macron likely to keep parliamentary grip thanks to record abstention
Ramin Mazaheri
Press TV, Paris
France’s election season is coming to an end, with the 2nd round legislative vote on June 19 set to determine if President Emmanuel Macron will have an easy parliamentary majority, and thus free reign to continue his often autocratic control over the nation’s political policies.
Polls show Macron’s coalition might fall just short of the 289 seats needed to control the National Assembly. However, his coalition is ideologically - combined with the drastically-reduced mainstream conservative party, so economic austerity and neoliberal ideas are polling to have around a dominant 340 seats.
Much like the “blue wave” of the United States Democrats in 2020, the NUPES alliance of left-wing parties seems certain to fall well short of its promises. They may wind up with only 30% of seats, could easily re-fracture into factions and face an extremely united so-called “bourgeois bloc”.
What appears certain is that turnout for the legislative elections will be the lowest not only in the history of the Fifth Republic, but also of the 4th and 3rd Republics. The true majority winner of the legislative elections will almost certainly be abstention, with turnout expected to be as low as just 43%.
Many say that such enormous abstention calls into question the democratic credibility of France’s election.
It’s possible that low turnout has been caused by Brussels, which for the past decade has ignored the results of elections to force through controversial changes. The high abstentions makes it almost certain that Macron will lack a credible mandate for his programs.
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