Northern Ireland: Majority of Irish people believe territory will leave UK within 25 years

Amid escalating communal tensions and violence in Northern Ireland, a new opinion poll shows that the majority of people Ireland-wide believe the British-controlled territory will break free from the UK within 25 years.

The poll commissioned by BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight program – and carried out by Northern Ireland pollsters LucidTalk and the Irish polling firm Ireland Thinks – has found that the Irish people on both sides of the border are gaining confidence in the idea of a united Ireland.

NI on the brink

When asked if they thought Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK in 10 years, 55 percent of respondents in NI and 59% in the Republic of Ireland agreed with the proposition.

However, when asked if the same situation would obtain in 25 years, 51 percent of respondents in NI and 54 percent in the Irish Republic said the north of Ireland would have broken free from the UK by then.

The BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight program is dedicated to Northern Ireland’s centenary and interviews leading figures in both the UK and Ireland, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin.

In Northern Ireland polling was carried out online between April 05 and 07 when 2,845 people were interviewed for the survey.

Meanwhile, in the Republic of Ireland polling took place between April 06 and 09 with 1,088 respondents taking part.

Irish Unity referendum

In British-controlled Northern Ireland, 49 percent of people said if there was a border poll – or a referendum on a united Ireland – today they would vote to remain in the UK, whereas 43 percent of respondents backed Irish unity and 8 percent were undecided.

Meanwhile, in the Republic of Ireland – where a referendum would have to be held simultaneously with the north – 51 percent of respondents said they favor a United Ireland, 27 percent would vote for NI to stay in the UK and 22 percent were undecided.

In Northern Ireland, 37 percent of people questioned said they would like to see a referendum on Irish unity within five years, whilst an additional 29 percent want a border poll at some point in the future.

However, on this most sensitive issue public opinion is not matched by political will, especially on the UK side.

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, told the Spotlight program that he cannot see any Northern Ireland Secretary considering a referendum on a united Ireland for a “very very long time to come”.

Return to the Troubles?

On the incendiary issue of a possible return to conflict, 76 percent of respondents in Northern Ireland agreed with the proposition that "the dispute over Northern Ireland's status remains unresolved and there is still a potential for violence in the future".

Meanwhile, in the Republic of Ireland, an even higher proportion, 87 percent, concurred with that grim view.

Interestingly, 48 percent of respondents in Northern Ireland agreed with the view that the creation of a land border on the island of Ireland 100 years ago was “a negative development which should be regretted”.

And finally on the issue of the centenary itself, only 40 percent of people in Northern Ireland saw the territory’s formation 100 years ago as a cause for celebration.

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