By Marcus Papadopoulos
Whilst the American withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty cannot compare in significance to the American withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty), or the American withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, nonetheless, the fact that Washington has now officially withdrawn itself from the Open Skies Treaty can serve only to increase the already appalling level of tension between America and Russia.
And that can only serve to make the world an even more, potentially speaking, unstable place because the Open Skies Treaty enabled America and Russia, over the years, when it was in existence, to develop a relatively speaking good degree of trust and transparency between the two superpowers.
As I said moments ago, the Open Skies Treaty cannot compare in significance to the ABM Treaty or the INF Treaty, but, nonetheless, the Open Skies Treaty served to bring about more communication between Washington and Moscow. It increased transparency between the two. And it helped to usher in more trust between the Americans and the Russians.
But now the Americans have withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty, it will only serve to increase tension between the two countries. And, of course, tension between the two superpowers is hardly conducive to maintaining peace and stability in the world. And I believe that now the Americans have withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty this could be an indication that the Americans will not renew the New START Treaty.
Now, that is highly significant and the importance of the New START Treaty, not just for the two superpowers but for the entire world is colossal, because the New START Treaty is the only nuclear weapons reduction treaty in existence today between America and Russia.
Now, the Russians have made it very clear that they wish to renew it, but the Americans have indicated, and I emphasize the word indicated, that they do not seek to renew the New START Treaty.
Now, if the Americans take the decision to not renew the New START treaty, then we can say, with a great deal of certainty, that the unofficial nuclear arms race between America and Russia at present, which has been going on for a few years now, will intensify.
The New START Treaty is the only treaty in existence at the moment which places constraints on the American and Russian nuclear arsenals. But if the New START Treaty is not renewed, if it goes into the history books as the ABM Treaty has or the INF Treaty has, then there is no doubt in my mind that there will be a very significant and very rapid intensification of the nuclear arms race between Washington and Moscow.
We will see all kinds of nuclear weapons being developed by the two superpowers – land-based nuclear weapons, sea-based nuclear weapons, and, of course, air-based nuclear weapons.
So, I believe that the American withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, in conclusion, is significant. It reduces the amount of trust and transparency between the two superpowers but the greatest ramification of it, in my opinion, is that it could indicate the Americans have no intention of renewing the New START Treaty.
And if the New START Treaty is not renewed, then the world will be witness to America and Russia stockpiling their nuclear arsenals as they did in the 1960s, the 1970s and in the 1980s because there will be no treaty, no constraints on them, whatsoever.
Dr. Marcus Papadopoulos is an expert in international relations and on Russia and the former Soviet Union. He is also a publisher and editor at the Politics First website in London. He recorded this article for Press TV website.