US polls narrowing as Trump surges closer
Ramin Mazaheri
Press TV, Chicago
The United States elections are in less than two weeks and multiple polls show that voter support for Donald Trump dramatically increased in October.
Key polls show that in just two weeks Democratic Joe Biden’s popular vote lead has plummeted from around 10 points to just 3. Other polls give Biden around a 6 point lead in the general election. But the US votes for their president indirectly, via a complicated electoral college.
In the half-dozen so-called “swing states” the same tightening has occurred recently, with Biden’s lead in most of them down to just 3 points. But any discussion of US polls should include how very wrong pollsters were in 2016.
Many assert that pollsters still aren’t properly factoring in the effect of so-called “shy” voters: people who do not want to publicly reveal that they are voting for the controversial Donald Trump, or those who don’t readily participate in polling.
Less than a handful of polling agencies corrected predicted Trump’s 2016 victory - seemingly all have picked him to win again, due to this “hidden” support among the electorate.
Because of concerns - but also despite concerns - about the legitimacy of the election, it’s estimated a whopping 30% of the total electorate has already voted. Again, the so-called “shy” Trump voter may complicate polling among this group as well.
The overwhelming number of mail-in ballots and the recent tightening of polls increases the likelihood that the US will not have a clear, accepted winner on election night, meaning “disputed polls” will probably turn into “disputed votes”.
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