US coronavirus death projection lowered but official warns of 'second wave'

An influential university model on the US coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday scaled back its projected death toll by 26% to 60,000 but a federal health official warned of a second wave of infections if Americans relax "social distancing" practices.

The downward revision in the death toll in the University of Washington model - often cited by US and state policymakers - coincides with comments by some political leaders that caseloads may have reached a plateau in certain areas.

Those assessments in recent days, including an apparent leveling out in hospitalizations in New York state - the US epicenter of the pandemic - are tempered by a persistent climb in the US death toll, which rose by more than 1,900 on Tuesday as some 30,000 new infections were reported.

New York Mayor Bill De Blasio told a briefing on Wednesday that coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous US city had stabilized and that the need for ventilators was lower than projected.

"In the last few days we've actually seen fewer ventilators needed that were projected," the mayor said.

Even that revised forecast suggested months of pain ahead for the United States. All told, about 400,000 US infections have been reported, along with roughly 13,000 deaths.

"What's really important is that people don't turn these early signs of hope into releasing from the 30 days to stop the spread - it's really critical," said Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, referring to guidelines aimed at reducing the spread of the virus.

"If people start going out again and socially interacting, we could see a really acute second wave," Birx added.

The pandemic has upended American life, with 94% of the population ordered to stay at home and nearly 10 million people losing their jobs in the past two weeks.

Hospitals have been inundated with cases of covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, resulting in shortages of medical equipment and protective garments.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is one of several that the White House task force has cited. It now projects US deaths at more than 60,000 by Aug. 4, down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities it had forecast on Tuesday.

The White House coronavirus task force has previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to US deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country's healthcare system will begin to abate a little sooner than previously expected.

(Source: Reuters)

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